
Report indicates Ageing Australian Population can be fueled by Migration
Report indicates Ageing Australian Population can be fueled by Migration What do you think is the most valuable import of Australia? Is it a good? Is it some kind of service? The answer may not be these two, but people.
Mr Jarrod Kerr, the chief interest rate strategist of the Commonwealth Bank, is the co-author of a report regarding the impact of migrants on the growth of the economy. He stated that one of the most essential drivers of growth for countries is population.
Mr Kerr says that advanced countries are going through a ”seismic shift” when it comes to demographic terms as the retirement of baby boomers begins.
In Japan and in most countries of Western Europe, there are not enough people being born to replace those who are either dying or have already passed, so their economies are not easily able to replace those who leave the workforce. This causes a decline in both inflation and growth in their economy.
According to Mr Kerr, retired baby boomers are going to draw down their savings. This means that there is going to be far less cash in the banks.
He continued on to say that there is a huge annual intake of immigrants in Australia however, which means that the economy has a steady supply of young people who are more than capable to fill the gaps left by those who will soon be retiring, or have already retired.
For the year 2013 to 2014, 478,557 migrants with a median age of 26.5 years were taken in by Australia. This, according to the most recent data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
”That is why we have higher potential growth rates here, higher interest rates here and a potentially stronger currency over time,” Mr Kerr said. ”It is a big part of our story, it always has been.”
Mr Philip Lowe, the governor of the Reserve Bank, is a staunch supporter of immigration. Last Friday, he rejected a suggestion that it would be worth cutting migrants just so housing can be made more affordable.
”Our immigration program, I see, is a source of strength,” Dr Lowe stated at a federal parliamentary committee hearing. ”To give that advantage up just so we can take some pressure off housing prices, I find that problematic.”
Mr Kerr also believes that populist and anti-immigration politics poses as a large risk for the country’s economic growth.
He also continued on to say that should they cut off the flow of migrants arriving on the shores of Australia, the whole dynamic is going to shift and reduce the growth potential of Australia a huge amount.
The potential growth rate of Germany was in the low 1 per cent range until there was a large influx of refugees from Syria in 2016. Now that growth has since doubled, Mr Kerr explained.
”And that is just on population,” Mr Kerr said. ”It is quite an interesting thing, so if we were to stop the migrant flow then clearly that would change the dynamics.”